Operation Epic Fury Day 11
From Resurrection Life of Jesus Church
Oil is back down to $80 a barrel after hitting $106 on the Monday open. This large decline is signaling and end to the conflict may be brewing behind the scenes. It started with Trump coming out with a statement saying the war will end very soon. This drove prices down.
Prices continued to slide into Tuesday on reports that Israeli officials are privately asking the question, where does this war actually end? There is more back channel chatter that Trump advisers are urging an exit plan from the Iran war amid fears of a political backlash. It is near certain that the spike in oil prices Monday morning rattled the U.S. administration.
Trump continues with his rhetoric saying he will kill Iran’s new supreme leader if he doesn’t submit to US demands. He is absurdly claiming he can take control of Kharg Island. An attack on the island will unleash wave after wave of Iranian missiles upon our Gulf allies energy infrastructure cementing a long term economic crisis due the long term loss of oil infrastructure. They have lost their minds.
Iran is taking a position that they will decide when the war ends. They have the resources to keep Hormuz shut in order to drive the global economy off a cliff and ruin Trump’s presidency. That was learned during the Carter presidency as they held the US hostages until the day Reagan took office. Carter lost the election in large part due to his inept handing of the hostage crisis.
Iran is offering any Arab or European country that expels Israeli and U.S. ambassadors from its territory will be granted full freedom of passage through the Strait of Hormuz starting the next day.
War Moves
Trump has offered to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz and France is stating they may escort ships. These claims are met with great scepticism inthe shipping industry. Iran holds all the cards. Today’s modern weaponry and the geography is in their favor. Wars are fought differently than 20 years ago.
France’s nuclear-powered aircraft carrier is moving to the Mediterranean. In addition, Britain is preparing the HMS Prince of Wales aircraft carrier for Middle East deployment. That would be potentially be 5 carriers operating against Iran.
Meanwhile the US is surging bombers toward the region. Stars and Stripes is reporting that the largest U.S. hospital in Europe is changing operations due to casualties. This hospital is a critical hub and evacuation point for U.S. service members wounded in training or combat operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Are we being lied to about our casualties?
Syria’s Kurds caution Iran’s Kurds against aligning with US against Tehran. They would eventually be abandoned by the U.S. like so many others in past wars. Iran continues to attack US bases and housing in the region in the Arab countries.
Iran continues to pummel Israel. A satellite communication center located south of Tel Aviv (Sdot Micha) was reported destroyed. This center was one of the main communication hubs connecting airbases with the fighter jets. It is reported that Itimar Ben-Gvir’s house was hit.
Tel Aviv continues to be struck. All of Israel continues to be under bombardment as seen here and here and here and here. Iran is being smashed as well by continuous waves of airstrikes and missiles. You can see those videos on Fox news and other US outlets.
There has been chaos at Ben Gurion Airport in Israel as people are trying to flee. It is reported that Israel has suffered 777 casualties. I have seen claims that are in the thousands. Iran’s health ministry said on Monday that more than 1,200 people had been killed, including around 200 women and 200 children under the age of 12, with more than 10,000 civilians injured.
Conclusion
It appears that Trump and Israel may be looking for an off ramp. Iran knows that they cannot be trusted and may elect to keep access to oil closed. They have offered an oil branch to the Gulf countries. The U.S., on the other hand, has been quietly using some of the Gulf bases to conduct the war despite their denials.
There is no telling when this will end. It could take years. The oil market traders may have some information that we do not have access to as oil prices have declined substantially from their highs on Monday. If this war continues that will not last long.