Operation Epic Fury Day 3
The US and Israel continue to pound on Iran’s centers of power and control with great success while Iran continues to launch drones and missiles into US and Israeli assets in the region with limited success. Widespread airstrikes continue to hit Iran. They are hitting civilian infrastructure.
US military says it has struck over 1,250 targets in Iran since start of operations. It is estimated 555 Iranians have died including over 100 school girls that were in a school at the time.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has said it has launched approximately 3,000 first and second-generation missiles and will definitely be using third and fourth-generation missiles in the coming days. Strikes continue across Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain.
Iran is now saying any American assets in the region are legitimate targets. This is of grave concern. How the Sunni monarchies will react should be know soon if this takes place. There have been strikes in the Saudi oil fields which have been disavowed by Iran’s deputy Foreign Minister. Despite that denial soft targets are being hit by Iran throughout the region.
The Sunni monarchies do not have anything like the layered protection that Israel has built. How long they will sit this out is anyone’s guess.
Saudi Aramco has suspended production and Qatar has stopped LNG production. While the Straight of Hormuz is closed to shipping tankers heading to China appear to be allowed through.
President Trump is claiming this operation will last 4 or 5 weeks but many analysts are saying the US magazine depth is too shallow to allow that to happen. US Tomahawk use appears to exceed its procurement. In addition, the closest base for reloading these into our destroyers is three days sailing time to Diego Garcia. The same applies to missile launches from our Ohio class subs into Iran and actually may be longer. That is a week round trip at the minimum. Question about the depth of THAAD missiles in stock remain.
Tomahawks travel slow compared to ballistic missiles and should be fairly easy to shoot down with advanced anti missile systems. If Iran has these types of systems they appear to have been destroyed.
Israel suffers the same problem with its layered Iron Dome missile defense systems. There is a finite supply of missiles available to counter drones and missiles fired from its adversaries in Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen. Iran has focused on developing a large and complex missile delivery systems and has been stockpiling and hiding its munitions in deep bunkers for decades.
Iran’s partners hit a British airbase in Cyprus. Hezbollah is firing missiles into Israel. Houthi Rebels in Yemen are warning of new Red Sea attacks. In the last round of attacks they were able to bankrupt Israel’s Port of Eliat and Jordan’s Port of Aqaba was also effected. Israel’s Port at Haifa has also been reported to have been hit but is operating normally. The refinery next to Haifa was hit. This infrastructure critical to life in Israel. Lebanon has banned Hezbollah’s military activities but they do not have the power to contain Hezbollah.
President Trump is not ruling out boots on the ground in a recent interview. No one can be sure where this whole operation is going at this point. Spain has expelled 15 US aircraft from its bases and Britain is only allowing their bases for collective self defense.
US and Israeli casualties appear low considering the size of the operation. Three F-15 where shot down in what is claimed as a friendly fire incident.
China has been using their systems to support Iran’s operations in a similar fashion that the US did for Iraq during the Iran Iraq war in the 1980’s. What may come out of this war is extremely close cooperation with Iran if China decides to build up their defenses.
The US State Department is urging all US citizens in 13 countries in the region to leave immediately.
Offramps
Despite Presidents Trumps bluster about how long this operation will last he could end it at anytime at this point and declare a victory. He knows very well the pulse of his base. While many believe his party will be demolished in the next round of elections this may not be the case. Some polling has them even.
Iran has been significantly damaged. Damage to the regions oil infrastructure has been light so far but that could change. Israel has taken some hits but the full extent of the damage will not be known for a long time. According to Secretary Rubio the hardest hits are yet to come. NATO leadership says the alliance will not join US-Israeli Iran operations
From other outlets and this section will be update through the day